iPhone Generation: Lonely & Depressed

A loser: unsustainable Internet companies. Wayfair, Blue Apron and Birchbox are the latest that have no sustainable strategy. These peer players are getting Amazon like valuations without a critical
component. That is a business that works, or some sort of moat, that makes their
companies scalable. For example, warehouses within 20 miles of 45% of the
population, or an incredibly robust loyalty program with 58% of American
households- yes, we’re talking about Prime. Wayfair’s on track to double William Sonoma’s eCommerce sales by 2019. Selling low-priced items, they’re competing with
Amazon, which bids on 43,000 of the same keywords. However, Amazon’s cash won’t run out. Meanwhile, Wayfair spending is unsustainable. The company currently has more liabilities than assets. In exchange for that massive spend, it’s garnered no
customer loyalty, even though the company spent 72 million dollars on TV ads in
2016, and is slated to spend 90 million this year. Just 9 percent of
search traffic comes from the master brand term, compared to 30 to 50 percent
from Williams-Sonoma brands. And they’re losing 60% of their customer base each
year. By the way, the best proxy for brand equity: look at the percentage of traffic
garnered from key term brand searches. Millward Brown and Ipsos: those businesses are going away. Blue Apron has a similar story. In Q1 they lost 52 million on
revenue of 245 million. The company has an enormous acquisition cost; it spent
four hundred and sixty dollars for each new customer in 2016.
Despite all those new users, Blue Apron’s revenue growth has been flat since Q1 of
2015. Their IPO down round was likely the nail in the coffin. What Wall Street
doesn’t get? Paying high cost of customer acquisition and investing insane amounts
in fulfillment doesn’t work when you have 60 percent customer churn. At some
point, like we saw with flash sites, there will be a major correction in the
marketplace. My advice to these companies? While the market is drunk and asleep, grab its wallet and buy a real business, as it will wake up, and it will be sober
and irritable. A continued loser: the brand industrial complex. The new startup, Brandless, competes with Amazon by borrowing another of the Seattle giant’s
strategies: Private Label. And more accurately: no label. But then again, if
Brandless becomes popular, isn’t Brandless a brand? Mind blown. Brandless sells generic household items from toothpaste to olive oil for just
three dollars: yet another signal of the death of the industrial brand complex, and is indicative of what is happening in the larger consumer economy. Normally during a recession private label brands take a larger share of CPG sales, as
people are trying to save money and don’t want to pay more for the better
known brand. During the recovery, however, big CPG brands are able to use the
normal levers of traditional advertising and caps etc., they convince consumers to pay up for the premium brand. But things are different now. There’s been a
structural shift, and despite a recovery in the economy, private label
sales continue to grow. We have entered a new era; the sun has passed midday on
brand building. A loser: the smartphone generation. Three in four American teens
now owns an iPhone. The impact? It’s making them more lonely. The data is
clear: since the release of the iPhone, the world has changed for American teens. Among other things, just 56 percent of high school seniors in 2015
went on dates in contrast 85 percent of Boomers and Gen Xers. To be fair, it’s not
all bad news. Teens may be replacing drugs with their
iPhones. Usage of illicit drugs, other than weed, has fallen among eighth, tenth, and twelfth graders, to its lowest point in 40 years. So teens are lonely, single, and addicted to their smartphones, but not doing drugs. Progress? Maybe. My sons are getting their first smartphones, and I told them they
could have any ringtone, as long as it was the sound of a tree falling in the
forest or one hand clapping. In addition, my smartphone is broken. Every time I use the home button, I find I’m still with people I hate. We’ll see you next week.

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100 thoughts on “iPhone Generation: Lonely & Depressed

  1. It's not the iPhone…it's the death of the American Myth. Young people have nothing to believe in and so need a new mythology to bullshit themselves into believing their lives have any meaning or purpose.

  2. Brand can be bad because of certain products with undeserved extremely high prices, but stupid people will continue to buy those products instead of similar or identical less expensive products. But a brand also tells you what you're getting in a way that goes beyond the product description. I don't think we'll ever see brands disappear, but I do think that we'll see companies selling more generic things so that the companies can build their own brand as a low-cost source of quality products. We especially won't get rid of brands because of China's common practice of low-quality or even dubious inexpensive products. We will need to know that a low price tag is based on competitiveness rather than having half the quality or being shipped broken or not even being the product described on the website.

  3. 1. The Internet has banished solitude.

    2. The actual experience of using the Internet is inherently solitary.

    Commercial pantomimes shore up the first hypothesis while denying the second.

  4. High school class of 2014 here who didn't date. Shit's expensive man, even if you have a job. It also didn't help I was doing everything I could to get into a decent college with a decent scholarship. With school, a job, and track practice, I just didn't have time to spend on dating unless I cut out the time used for those three. Dating just didn't fit in to the schedule, which now that I think about it could be the same for a lot of other people. College wasn't really the end goal for a lot of high schoolers in previous generations but now is a necessity to get a decent pay so maybe people are sending the time that use to be used for dating and using it to bolster their resumes with activities and studying? I mean I see it enough now being in physics research. A lot of people I have meet have sacrificed their love life for research, for better or for worse.

  5. Thanks for the tips Scott, I also have the one hand clapping ringtone now, works like a charm on every incoming call! 😉

  6. I think a big part of why people date less now is that there is a cultural shift in terms of marriage. People are getting married and having kids at a later and later age. The steps to get to marriage(dating) would logically appear more sporadically if there was more time tovget married. Beforehand it was common for people to marry their high school sweethearts. That's like 4 years to pick a mate. Whereas noeadays women wish to have careers before they start families. We see people starting families later and therefore dating less frequently at an earlier age where being in a relationship matters less if you aren't thinking of marriage.

  7. Terrence McKenna predicted this in the 90's. Said technology will compete with and take over as the preferred recreational drug of choice. Defining what a drug is on an abstract point of view. It's true.

  8. Smartphones are great for connecting you to friends or family that are far away… but also great at disconnecting you from people that are in the same room as you…

  9. Cant fathom why this channel only has 200K subs…and channels dedicated to fidget spinners and makeup have subs equalling the population of Texas.

  10. More people are worried about their wallets than finding love nowadays because it's becoming drastically more difficult to make ends meet. Even with college degrees, most of us are either saddled with massive debt, flat broke, or straddling the line between being broke and poor. Good paying jobs still exist, but they're far less attainable than they used to be.

  11. Honestly, as a young Millennial who has always been a late adopter, I find cell phone a means to an end. I use my phone ( with relations to people) to keep in touch with the goal of making plans to meet in person later. All the rest of it, just seems unnecessary ( except for the internet searches). Also find it hard to believe that what Scott is implying, that private brand sells will drop below white label brands.

  12. I'm wondering if modern ecommerce websites like Wayfair could start putting out more of their own private label goods and in turn become like the many different stores, supermarkets and department stores you see nowadays and thus compete with Amazon

  13. I agree with Facebook on this one. they are just a platform and shouldn't be held liable for what people say. fake news should be considered free speech. It's up to us as individuals to do our due diligence

  14. If a Smart Phone helped your connectedness, you had no friends to begin with and only think you do now cause you're in the same club. If the power goes out 90% of my generation would curl into a ball and kill themselves with bathsalts.

  15. Blue apron needs to look around at some less popular food services like Sisco in the early 2000s. Buy them with their overpriced stocks and become managers beloved by a shaken market when the next correction arrives

  16. Oh it's a single device's fault because during the release of the iPhone the internet didn't boom immensely and online gaming and social media didn't come into fruition. Kinda strange for him to place the blame almost entirely on a single product…..

  17. You are actual shit Scott. I'm serious. And your voice makes me want to ram my hand down your throat, yank it out and stomp on it, so as I can stop the aural assault that I've been submitted to for the last nearly 5 minutes. You come across with the manner of a conspiracy theorist: smug in the knowledge that you have some higher wisdom, and sharing it with a condescending air, and yet seeming not to have a full grasp of the facts yourself. Who knows, maybe you do: your whole presentation was delivered so fast I don't know what the facts were. As I said your video came up on as an advert, I don't know what you were selling, other than yourself, and as you can probably guess that is not a brand I would buy into.

  18. One hand clapping, excellent Scott! Love to see a piece on the path forward for the traditional CPGers (if one exists).

  19. I laughed at the part when he said "the economy had recovered" It has not for many people. Not in the last 30 – 40 years. I'm a millennial & even I know that. Is it possible to get smarter & dumber at the exact same time?

  20. Get off my lawn. My kid has a Kindle and can't hear me when I talk directly to him. He's the type that would be moody too. Gotta figure this ish out

  21. QOTD: "My smartphone is broken. Every time I hit the home button, I'm still with people I hate."
    This was pure gold 🙂

  22. Blue Apron – love the service hate the business. Even if the premise behind the idea is sustaining the barrier to entry is simply to low. And once their current market is saturated where do they go next… TV dinners by mail? No, this IPO was a redistribution of risk from wall street to main Street.

  23. It's apparent from his graph that dating has been in decline since 1990. I am guessing that dating picked up in the 60s and 70s as guys got laid for their money. Then started declining as guys realized that women were getting equal pay but still freeloaders. Just pick them up at clubs after midnight after suckers (AKA stupid men) get them drunk.

  24. Brother sorry to bother you with this question. What is the brand name of your polo style shirt you are wearing? P.S. love your show.

  25. 1:15 Branded searches are tricky. It also means that those searches include customer acquisition cost. Campaign clicks without brand include the campaign cost. And organic clicks are essentially 'free'. So when you have 90% non-branded searches it's not all bad. The company may have low brand equity, but nonetheless customers are giving it a try. Thoughts?

  26. I spent half my life with NO tech. Because I remember when Citizens Band Radio became the "Rich Man's" show off toy!

    Nowadays, I sit as if I'm alone with no one to talk too, even though my family is sitting with me at a restaurant, all on their shitty phones NOT paying any attention to me and what I am saying. I am utterly faceless, I have no meaning, I serve no usefulness as a growing (older) senior citizen. I have a decent pension, I have medical, even dental plan to keep me viable. But no value to being anything what I was brought by. My Grandparents. Now that I find myself a GrandFather, I hold no value in this modern tech culture. My Grand children seldom speak to me, if it does happen maybe once a year, they have great difficulty engaging in conversation. You that are young and still slapping your hard penis to and fro, you're time is coming quicker than you think. Maybe marriage will be a thing of the past, maybe females will go shop on No-Brand.com and select their child of choice fitting any of the selected options. Just click, and allow us to do the heavy work to the newest "Fullfillment Express" package with guaranteed free overnight delivery in these Continental United States.

    As an Investigator, I am a fact based detailed oriented person. I wished most times when I am out mixing amongst the sloths an consumers I see wondrous amazing examples of female beauty, yet strangely, few to any men taking notice. I know I strayed… My wish might be, where was this painted on beauty back in my day…

    Then, Maybe I too shall Not Want it afterall…. Thanks to Network News I guess.

  27. This is the first generation of kids who didn't spend their youths playing in the streets… That impacted their socialization.

  28. Damn! You have to go through 3/4 of this video to get to the subject matter of the title? I get that maybe the first 75% of the video ties into the last 25%, but make it more overt and bring up the ultimate point of the video at the beginning and tie in each point to the ultimate message as you make it.

  29. @4:00 iPhoney "teens are lonely single addicted" stupid & unfugable … swipe lefttright for true love? Passive eugenics more like… roach motel in app form

    They ARE doing drugs …dopamine and it rewires brains and shreds attention spans

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