How to Win the Technology Race with China | Anja Manuel | TEDxPaloAlto

Translator: Robert Tucker
Reviewer: Allon Sasson Good morning Silicon Valley. I am so happy to be here with you
world-class entrepreneurs and scientists in the audience and across the country. We’ve been busy building the future and setting the global values
for technology, like a freely shared Internet
not controlled by any government. We have lofty ideas and we believe in
tough but fair competition. We also believed, until now,
that we were on top of the world, confident that our open innovation
culture would prevail. Well, I’m here to tell you
that may not be the case. Your competitor isn’t a company
down the street here in Silicon Valley; it’s a deeply strategic
technology juggernaut, the Communist Party of China. Because China plays by different rules, our style of doing business, and ability to set
the values for technology, may soon become much more limited. And it’s happening faster than you think. It’s time we acknowledge that China systematically
extracts technology from the West, through both legal and nefarious means The stakes are enormous,
but the news isn’t all bad. All of us here can affect
how this comes out. Instead of closing our system,
as we’re already beginning to do, we can, and must, compete, and then, in some cases,
we can even cooperate. So, let’s discuss, first,
how China is reaching its goal to be number one in most key technologies. Second, where that leaves us. Third, what the US and the West
have done about it to date. And fourth, what we must
all now do together. One example of how China
acquires cutting-edge tech sounds like a good spy novel. Su Bin, a Chinese national,
owned a small aviation firm in Canada. He was a renowned expert. What no one knew was that he was also
one of China’s most valuable spies. Su was the key to an enormous
hacking operation. He was what’s called a spotter. He would lead Chinese government hackers to the most interesting
engineers and leaders inside Boeing and other
US aerospace firms. With Su’s help, they then stole
hundreds of thousands of files related to the C-17
military transport plane. It paid off. Here’s the US C-17 cargo plane. It cost 31 billion dollars
and years of engineering effort to create. The Chinese hacking operation,
by contrast, cost just a million dollars. And the outcome was this. Notice anything? This is the Xi’an Y-20 cargo plane. Doesn’t it look
a lot like its US counterpart? Now, let me be clear: Not all Chinese steal technology. Many are first-rate innovators
in their own right. But the politics and values
of the Chinese Communist Party are not like ours. It’s a top-down authoritarian system. This is President Xi Jinping,
and what he says goes. When was the last time
you saw our president in front of our Congress
getting this kind of applause. (Laughter) President Xi has been very public
and intentional about China’s goals. By 2025, China wants to master
and produce at home key technologies, like semiconductors,
self-driving cars, 5G, and others. By 2035, he wants to be
a global leader in innovation in all key technologies. And by the middle of this century, China wants to lead
in national strength and influence, with an army that can fight and win. How is China reaching these goals? There’s nothing wrong
with China wanting to rise, nothing wrong with wanting to innovate, but China often doesn’t play fair. Our Western innovation system
is based on private enterprise, unguarded universities,
and open-source research. Not so China’s. In the past few years,
the world has woken up to China’s effort to vacuum up the world’s technologies. It’s a systematic effort
coordinated by the Communist Party, and this is how it works. First, through cyberspying
and stealing trade secrets, like Subin did, which one Commission estimates
cost the US economy between 200 and 500
billion dollars every single year. Second, by encouraging students
at Western universities, Chinese students at Western universities, to spy. This does not mean that all Chinese students are spies. Far from it. But, increasingly, they’re getting
pressure from their government to do so. Third, by investing in some
of our most advanced technology companies. In recent years,
Chinese have been involved in 10% to 15% of all US venture deals. And, finally, by forcing Western companies to hand over intellectual property
as the price of doing business in China Now, China also has a very impressive, entirely legal,
whole of government effort to educate its scientists, to provide lots of funding
for key technologies, like semiconductors and AI, and then, because the Chinese
Communist Party has such a tight grip
on its private sector to ensure that anything
learned in a private lab goes to benefit the Chinese
government and military. Through all these means,
China is rapidly catching up. Depressed yet? I don’t mean to terrify you. I love China. I wrote a book about it. I travel there all the time. I have many friends there. This is not about the Chinese people. But it’s time that we connect the dots on what the Communist Party
of China is trying to do. They haven’t surpassed us yet, but when we look in the rear-view mirror, those objects are closer than they appear. Where does this leave the US? We used to pour generous funding
into the toughest technologies. But no longer. In recent years, of all the global money
going into AI startups, almost 50% went to Chinese startups, just 38% to the US,
and far less to the rest of the world. We used to give our students a world-class science
and technology education. But no longer. A recent OECD study
ranks China 10th in the world in science and math scores, and the US a measly 31st. That’s unacceptable. We used to collaborate effectively
between the private and public sector. But no longer. Numbers are hard to compare, but in recent years,
the Chinese government has vastly increased
its research and development funding. So it now spends nearly 9% of its budget. The US spends less than 3%. Compare that to
the Space Age in the 1960s, where we spent nearly 12%. And finally, we used to set the global values
and standards for technology. But no longer. Huawei, a Chinese company,
is set to dominate the 5G infrastructure, the antennas and routers
that are going to run everything from your mobile phone
to the whole Internet of Things. We shouldn’t want
any one company, Chinese or not, to have the ability
to shut down our electricity grid, or, if they want, make all the self-driving cars
veer off the road. There is no good outcome
to the path we’re on. If we do nothing, here’s where we end up. We could see, for example, the spread of China’s
Orwellian social control system to other countries, where they’re using facial recognition
and monitoring what people say online, to stop jaywalking, sure, but also to make sure no one’s saying
anything negative about their government. China is already using this
to oppress their own uyghur minority, and they’re exporting that technology
to dictators around the world. We could see dangerous
gene-editing experiments on humans if we don’t work together to set the ethics
for this type of research. You already saw a Chinese scientist come out with an “AIDS-proof”
baby late last year. And, most importantly,
we could see violent conflict increase because we haven’t bothered
to set the norms for cyberwar, like we saw in our 2016 election, or robots and more, and as China and others
increasingly adapt these technologies and their international ambitions grow. This is not inevitable. It’s in our power, all of us,
to choose a different future. The Chinese aren’t 10 feet tall. They have a long way to go,
and we can compete effectively if we get started now So, what have we done to date? It’s been almost entirely defensive. So far, the US government has pulled up
the drawbridge to Castle USA, dug a moat, and tried to protect
the technology that’s inside. We recently tightened up our laws to make it harder
for Chinese and other foreigners to invest in our technology companies, and we’re in the process
of broadening our export controls so US companies can’t sell
cutting-edge technology to China. This alone isn’t going
to solve the problem. Moats and walls won’t work. Technology is airborne. Much of it has already flown. As all of you know, we’re part
of one global web of innovation. Let me give you an example. Semiconductors are often
designed in the US, but then you manufacture it
in South Korea, in Japan, and in Taiwan. From there, they move to China, where they’re assembled
into all the gadgets in your pocket. And from there, they’re sold
all over the world. Tech companies collaborate across borders
and innovate everywhere. Alibaba, a Chinese company,
does much of its AI research in China, but also in the US, in Moscow,
in Israel, and Singapore, and elsewhere. Google has advanced research labs here, but also in China, in London,
in India, and around the world. Breaking up this global web
will be nearly impossible. Most countries won’t go along
and would punish us as much as China. So what would a positive,
offensive strategy look like? To compete, we do not have to declare
the Chinese people the enemy, and we do not have to close
ourselves off from the world. Here’s how we, all of us,
working together, including you, could do it. On the global level,
we have to stop going it alone. After World War II, a remarkable group of people came together and created the United Nations, the World Health Organization,
and the IAEA, that governs nuclear power. It was an enormous effort,
and it paid off. Well, it’s time for another such effort. We could create, for example,
a Tech-10 group of like-minded countries, including Israel, India,
Japan, and others, that would meet regularly to set the global values
and standards for technology, to make sure that AI
doesn’t invade your privacy, and that there are norms
to govern cyberwar. China wouldn’t be excluded from this, it would just have to accept
the same high standards. We also may need to make sure that trade in technology is fair, with our allies, not alone as we’re currently doing. There should be costs
to countries like China who steal and extort
to get an unfair advantage. The US government should get into the act. We absolutely must increase
our federal R&D budget by billions of dollars every year. Currently, our government and military are hopelessly dependent
on the private sector. We also must ensure that there’s much more competence
in the US government about technology. Did you all see the Zuckerberg
hearings last year? I was left feeling that many
of our Members of Congress are terrifyingly unprepared
to govern advanced tech. Time to change that. We must improve our science
and technology education. We just can’t be the engine of progress
if our children can’t do math. And, on immigration, rather than banning Chinese
scientists from studying here, and keeping the best minds out of the US, we should let them in, vet people carefully, and crack down hard on anyone
who is actually caught spying. Xenophobia is not the answer. It’s not just governments, all of us, including all of you here,
and watching online, have a role to play. If you work in a private
sector tech company, or a university, wake up, a cyberthreat from China or elsewhere
is probably already within your system. This is not the US government
just being paranoid. And please, within reason, begin cooperating
with your own government again. All of the legendary
Silicon Valley companies, Fairchild Semiconductor,
Varian, and others, did this. Contrast that with Project Maven, where last year Google and the Pentagon had a huge blow-up over working together
on a pretty basic AI project, and Google ultimately pulled out. Within reason, we must
become patriots again, rather than just fixating
on becoming unicorns. Together – (Laughter)
(Applause) thank you – Together we can bend history, and if we create a level playing field, we can even cooperate with China,
on tech that helps all of us: solar, wind, biotech,
things that help all humans. We’re a magnanimous people with big ideas. We’re being called on now
to make a once-in-a-generation effort to steer technology
in the right direction. Let’s get started. (Applause)

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100 thoughts on “How to Win the Technology Race with China | Anja Manuel | TEDxPaloAlto

  1. this women is obviouly a victim of domestic abuses, paranoid. now i'm wondering how TED got here, i will no longer watch TED after this.

  2. Did she really think, that the West became rich because they played fair? Then why spent USA more Money to the military than the rest of the world combine?

  3. Well first of all it would be nice if Israelis didn't sell on the US's technological blueprints. The biggest secret betrayal still happening.

  4. Wow. Look at all the coordinated bashing posts, all with no profile picture, all posted roughly around the same time. Chinese troll army much??

  5. This lady talk rubbish. greedy, selfish and ego filled. only want to keep USA the number one. You have forgotten what USA have stolen technology from Germany during WW2.

  6. Let me summarize the video for you: China is getting ahead of us b/c their government is doing an awesome job supporting science and tech (but I wouldn't admit it rather than call it spying and unfair). How to win the race with China? Just be like them!

  7. Excellent points made. However will our Govt do anything?? Trump's MAGA is really a GIFT to China because he is incompetent, Science Illiterate, and egregiously lacks any Foresight beyond 1 week. Public Education in the U.S. is a joke compared to China. They are light years ahead of us. It's a systemic problem with Values. China reveres STEM while we revere money, business, law, and sports. It will take generations to make the changes and the U.S. had better get started else be left behind.

  8. "It’s time we acknowledge that China systematically extracts the most advanced technology from the West. "
    ???? Like 5G?

  9. China plan is transparent. They can have 50 years 100 years planning but US president can .only have 4 years… that is the big difference. And China has 1.3 billion hardworking people and a tiny percentage are smart and innovative is good enought to bit anyone..

  10. The West has been playing unfairly for 500 years via colonization and now you want to play fair because you have teeth against China anymore?

  11. Anja is right on point with all that is happening with technology transfer. We spend the money to innovate and take the technology to China, open up the blueprint to the communist leadership in China so we can built cheap over there.
    Look google and face just to name a couple of companies that aren’t allowed to operate in China but the Communist party just takes the idea and innovation and create their companies that run by the communist party without having Google and Facebook as competitors.
    Lets not be blind and say the competition is on a fair plan here.

  12. The claim Chinese oversea students are used as spies could hurt a lot of students and their future. I would like her to provide some cases/proof for that.

  13. this lady's talk only based on bias and rumor, US blame others for their own mistake. This is true reason for China win US

  14. American can not understand why China can do such huge leap in technology, except in steal. It look like all high technology is belong to American's , and it is not fair when China gains technology power after years research. What is the perception of deviation.

  15. can you name 1 "forced technology transfer" ?

    US commerce chamber in China
    could not name 1.

    TED should be ashamed to host such half baked presentation

  16. Students get pressure from government to spy? Base on what? Your imagination? Cyber spy from military? Who doesn’t?

  17. Another China threat propaganda! Steal, spy, would you pls kindly look at the poor Chinese labors who sacrificed a lot to earn penny of salary since you were living in China and “ has lots of friends” there? Can you point out one war started by China and killed millions of people? Guess not, that nation isn’t aggressive, no colonization DNA in it, “ professor”

  18. 我本来还想打英文评论的。想想不解气,愚蠢,迂腐的女人,你知道为什么中国发展的这么快吗?因为中国人在低头做事,而像你这种人在抬头放屁!

  19. After seeing the "similarities" of the planes, I stopped watching. I can use the same "similarities" between US C-17 and Chinese Y-20 to claim that the US aircraft carriers are made after spying on the native Indians' canoes. For God sake, the Chinese are using the Russian designs and technologies! She sounds like she is working for the US government, or worse, the Trump administration or the CIA.

  20. This is what one can learn from Fox News and China bashing commentors on many American media,so why take the trouble to attend her talk? Can she provide outstanding proof of China encouraging its overseas students to spy ? Is she aiming for a post in the Trump Admin because she sounds like Peter Navarro , but there are already too many nutjobs there.

  21. The U.S. greatest strength is the one thing we don't invest enough in and that is our diversity. We do not all think alike which is a good thing because that is where new idea's come from.

  22. Very clever use of words to drive a half-truth analogy. Shame on such a learned and esteem guest. If all technology can be easily copied and replicated then surely any other country big or small can do it. I am ashamed of this speaker. Un subscribed.

  23. China: let's innovate and find new renewable power technology.
    Trump: Let's bring back coal and Make America Great Again.

  24. 14:26 Yeah, the reasons we know that your systems is under attack because I we are also fxxkin hacking it (through PRISM). BOOM, surprise!

  25. Very interesting but does is not going to work unless some fundamental changes occur in the US: 1) As she said: improve the technical competence of the elected government and within the bureaucracy. Hire or elect more engineers and scientists (like in China). 2) As she said as well, the education system must change to have more competent professionals and technocrats in the future. One of the major difference with China is execution. They work 996. Are you willing to do that as well? I doubt it.

  26. Since when has TED technology talk become so political?
    If I understand correctly, her suggestion to Win is to build Walls in cyber world. hm…

    Heard people laughing in the talk, which sounded like targeting her like-minded group. However, TED thinks it’s “an idea worth spreading” over the world.
    I guess in a way, TED is right. The world needs to know the change of the American intellectual minds now.

    I hope in the meanwhile, Chinese can become more open-minded and invite intellectuals all over the world to take down Walls.

    PS: 中文翻译软件可以轻松翻译粗口秽语。请维护中国文明古国和尊重妇女的形象,为建设国际网络文明作出应有的姿态。

  27. TED oh well this is TED now I know, n u'll not win if u still keep this point all the time, c u in 2025 we'll see, good luck America.

  28. Basically she is saying these:

    How did China get 5G?
    They stole it from US.
    How come US did not have 5G?
    Because the Chinese stole it.

  29. Many PAID Communist Chinese commentators here dissing this video and trying change the narrative to win public opinion. But it’s NOT working on me. I agree with the speech of this lady. Very FACTUAL.

  30. 傻逼,靠偷能成第一,全世界都能成科技强国了,一点脑子都没有。当你说别人偷了你东西时,前提是你得有这个东西,你个5G,量子通讯都搞不定的玩意儿,还好意思大言不惭,不嫌自己丢人。

  31. Take home message: More Walls.
    Hm surprised to see TED identify this idea “worth spreading”.

    I have no doubt that we will see technology blossom in US in the coming few years after so many Americans secretly offended by the idea of Chinese winning in certain technology filed (a fear/tension created by the US president declaring emergency of IT service).
    But this time, it’s going to be just for The Great America (oh and the Mar-a-Lago friends, “if they behave”).

    The era of "That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind." is ending.

    US president Mr. Trump already successfully built walls in the minds of American people, including the Silicon Valley technology elites.

    Did you see that coming, Mr. Neil Armstrong?

  32. It doesn't mater what you team up to do, it the end of private capitalism, it is your system coming to an end, it is private capitalism GREEDS. Did they put a guns next to those head for technologies transfer??, it is a agreement win win situation, don't do business their if you feel forcing technology transfer, after all you also making profits and took advantage of lower wages low cost products at homes, now you complaining, step up your games, look at your own Debt $22T plus, are you able to pay back or just start printing more money? Your Empire is coming to an end, stop inter fearing with other countries.

  33. Miss Conspiracy, if you find China has stolen anything from US, just sue them…Since you are just good at it. Tech 10? Who will make the rules again? I guess it is USA again??? China has never bombed any country like the US did in all these years. China just worked hard and love doing business with everyone! What's wrong with that? Now China has earned some money and just would like to invest in tech. What's wrong with that? Just ridiculous…

  34. Why the Americans and Europeans always have the mindset of win or lose?? We Chinese always think win-win and corporate with each other. The world belongs to all mankind. Our goal is enjoying the star sea and the galaxy, alien civilization and lanching mars are upon us.

  35. This’s so true… many tech companies don’t wanna make issues out of it because they want doing business in China. Look at China 1 belt 1 road initiative in Eastern Europe, look at South China Sea conflicts/invasion of the islands and look at debts trapped to developing Africa/S E Asia countries. It’s happening sooner than you think!

  36. A western woman talking about technology hahahaha that's funny because technology is a man thing,it's the same thing as a woman telling us how to make beter beer than the Germans.

  37. 中国的路真的走对了!在过去两千多年的时间里,中国大部分时间(两千年)领先,近两百年没落了, 现在到了中国王者归来的时候了。 The KING is coming back!

  38. 演讲者的逻辑很奇怪:美国制定行业标准, 造福世界; 中国制定行业标准, 危害世界。

  39. 我可以明确地告诉演讲者,现阶段,中国人民坚决支持中国共产党, 而且在可以预见的未来, 这种情况不会改变。 所以, 热爱中国人民,反对中国共产党,本身就是个伪命题!

  40. Of course they steal everything. It's too bad it took this long for companies to figure that out. Remember what china is…People's democratic dictatorship is a phrase incorporated into the Constitution of the People's Republic of China

  41. Is it really too much important for you to become number one ? Can we not cooperate so that everyone can benefit ? The number two position is much better if we cooperate than number one when we become hostile

  42. So I think China should make planes without wings in order to not steal. Oh, should you accuse China of making round wheels? Of course planes look similar. There are many ways leading to Rome, but there is only one best one.

  43. Forced technology transfer? Forced by what? Guns or nuclear weapons? All are the results of negotiations and exchange! If you don’t want it, just don’t do the deal and give up the world’s largest market ! But please stop call this « forced technology transfer » !

  44. How did it take 15+ minutes to explain two simple steps?
    1. Raise smarter researchers!
    2. Let them research!
    That's it! If your research require tech your country doesn't have, GET THEM! If China has tech you need, STEAL THEM if you must and can! What's so complicated about any of that?

  45. This woman is a sabotagor running a smear campaign against China! She claimed to have many Chinese friends, she's a liar, Chinese won't be friend with this 小人!

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